Black thunderclouds

While the trade unions gather and fold the banners after the simulacrum of mobilization that yesterday took place in several Spanish cities with pyrrhic assistance, the pernicious macroeconomic information keeps on accumulating in cascade.
According to the last regional report on employment prepared by the Association of big Companies of Temporary Work (Agett), the number of hearths in which all his active members are stopped it promotes 1.219.915, what is equivalent to 9,5 % of the whole of Spanish hearths. Namely in almost 10 of every 100 hearths revenues of the work are not already perceived.
If they are included to those hearths where at least half of the assets is unemployed, this number rises up to the 2.760.250, 21,5 % of the whole of Spanish hearths (almost 1,6 million hearths more in this situation since the crisis began).

A report that is circulating for weeks along Internet and that Bridgewater Associates signs, one of the biggest agents of hedge funds of the world for the assets volume, warns that Spain will not be able to face to the contracted public debt.
There are seven points, brief, but devastating:
a) “We are pessimistic on the debt problem of the Euroarea because we are noticing in Spain, not in Greece”.
b) “In fact, imports little how the Greek topic is solved since his solution will not be an impediment so that the same situation is reproduced in other countries with similar conjunctures”.
In any case, knowing this, “the EU will have still to do something to prevent the deterioration from being contagious to other regions inside the Euroarea”.
c) “In the end, what has remained demonstrated is that the belonging to the euro is, for the countries now needy, a luck of gold standard that restricts his freedom to print money and to finance his economy in moments of need”.
d) “The only alternative, therefore, happens for choosing between austerity or deficit financed with the emission of public debt. Spain has chosen for the second thing and, at the moment, the market has not given him the back as it proves the evolution of his spreads”.
e) “Nevertheless, the important thing is not so much what a country owes his aptitude to re-pay the due thing. Our analysis of the cash flows (income / expenses of the Administration and scales for checking account) and of the value of the Spanish assets it proves that the market is not valuing correctly the risk Spain and that his: differential?, at present in 1,4 % (February 10 the CDS was in 140), they should be located in 6,5 % for fundamental”.
f) Why?.
1) There is neither margin nor political will to reduce the public expenditure; 2), the government is in a weakness position and needs of continuous alliances for the decision making; 3), he has installed in Spain the culture of the subsidy to himself; 4) gives priority to the politics of refinancings of debt deprived opposite to that of recognition of almost true non-payments.
g) Conclusion: "Like reference, the foreign debt grade (up to 80 % of the GDP) accumulated as Spain in a currency that does not admit his free emission on the part of the indebted one has scarce precedents and resembles what happened with Germany after the First World war. In fact, there is no any situations steadfastness, even similar, in that a payment of this debt has taken place.”.
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